The rationality of irrational robotics investments
Lessons from the graveyard of failed robot startups, ICRA 2026 meetups and more
The big problem for robotics funding isn’t the technology. It’s the timing. Robotics technology has emerged just in time to catch some tailwinds for early stage funding in the 2012-2020 period, but is now hitting funding headwinds. Ironically, there has never been more money under management in venture capital firms. The issue is that all of this money is increasingly sitting with the new ‘mega’ funds, and not going to small funds, niche investors or first (second and third) time fund managers. That’s not great news for robotics in general, but it does explain why there are a handful of very very rich robotics deals happening.
These days, it’s not how can robots produce value in the world, it’s how can robots unlock mega checks.
What’s happening?
The amount of money that VC funds had to invest was largely stagnant at $300 to $500 billion in the 2008 to 2012 era around the Global Financial Crisis. From 2013 to 2021, during the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) era, the Limited Partners that fund funds moved out of the stock market and into venture capital. The number of active venture capital firms expanded from approx 1000 to over 4000, with US Assets Under Management (AUM) reaching $1.5 trillion. During this period Asian funds also increased significantly in size to rival US based funds.
Since 2022 interest rates have risen and the number of exits, IPOs or M&As have dropped, leading to a plateau in the amount of new money entering venture funds. Although the total amount of money is still huge, the actual number of LPs behind VC funds has halved. Smaller LPs are not participating and smaller funds are struggling to raise money. With 50% fewer LPs investing in venture funds, the LPs that remain are required to write larger checks, thus forcing ongoing consolidation towards the new ‘mega’ funds. These mega funds have not just the capability, but the need to write mega checks.
Is there hope?
Perhaps. IPOs are back. This might free up more funds for the smaller funds which are the primary supporters of robotics.
A Layered Investment Case for Robotics
Bullhound Capital has just released a report with insights from Ralf Gulde (Co-founder & CEO of Sereact), Ariyan Kabir (Co-founder & CEO of GrayMatter Robotics), Prof. Paul Newman (Co-founder & CEO of Oxa, BP Professor of Information Engineering at the University of Oxford), Kier Storey (Co-founder & CTO of Vsim), Daniel Ong (Co-founder & CEO of Menlo Research), Edwin Yap (Founder & CEO of MR. ROBOT), Jeremy Soo (Founder & CEO of Curve Labs), and Nanjing Sensagile, who offer perspectives spanning foundation models, simulation infrastructure, industrial deployment, and the geopolitics of the robotics supply chain.
Key findings:
Labour scarcity is creating a structural demand floor for robotics – Demographic shifts, retiring skilled workforces, and rising labour costs are creating a long-term automation imperative that is increasingly independent of the economic cycle.
The deployment moat is difficult to replicate – Real-world production environments generate operational data that cannot be fully recreated in simulation. Companies that deploy first accumulate proprietary learning loops that compound over time.
Reliability matters more than capability – Unlike digital AI, where models compete primarily on capability, robotics systems compete on reliability, safety, uptime, and outcome accountability.
The most durable economics may emerge from operational infrastructure – As hardware becomes increasingly commoditised, value shifts toward the layers that own workflow integration, deployment relationships, and recurring operational revenue.
China, the United States, and Europe remain deeply interconnected – China leads in manufacturing scale and deployment density. The United States leads in AI research and software infrastructure. Europe retains strengths in industrial automation, embedded systems, and deployment expertise. The most investable companies may be those that operate across these ecosystem boundaries rather than within a single geography.
Convertible notes are debt. Cartwheel Robotics founder Scott LaValley warns others.
Scott LaValley has launched a website ‘Cartwheel Info’ documenting the public docket for Cartwheel Robotics’ bankruptcy case. There are plenty of unpleasant lessons for early stage founders along the way. I believe that all robotics founders can learn from Scott’s openness, so here is his Linked In post as well.
This is not the ending I wanted for Cartwheel.
We built a small humanoid robot company around a simple belief: humanoids should not just be capable — they should be trustworthy, expressive, useful, and something people actually want in their lives.
Cartwheel did not voluntarily file for bankruptcy; it is now in an involuntary Chapter 7 proceeding initiated by three petitioning creditors. The public record can be difficult to follow through the court docket alone, so I created this site to make selected filings easier to access and understand.
These filings are not the whole story. They are the opening public record in a case that will continue to develop through the court process over many months.
Some filings include allegations, disputed characterizations, and procedural positions by parties in interest. The archive is not the final word — it is the public record to date.
I had hoped this chapter was behind me and that I could begin moving forward. For now, I am focused on getting through the process.
There is also a hard founder lesson here:
A convertible note is debt.
It may convert into equity later. It may feel like startup financing. It may be described as bridge capital. But until it converts, it is a creditor instrument.
And depending on the terms, it can also create significant control leverage.
Protective provisions, consent rights, board rights, veto rights, default leverage, and investor approval rights can fundamentally change who controls the company — especially when the company becomes distressed or needs more capital.
For founders building startups and seeking outside capital, the financing instrument matters.
Debt versus equity matters.
Governance rights matter.
Control rights matter.
Investor alignment matters.
Counsel alignment matters.
Even changing “and” to “or” can have enormous consequences.
A SAFE is not perfect, but founders should understand the difference between selling future equity and taking on debt that may carry creditor rights and control leverage.
I am sharing the public record because I believe founders should understand these risks before they are living inside them.
This archive will be updated as the docket develops.
The devil is always in the details and probably the hardest thing to focus on when you’re securing fundings is asking what would happen if everything went wrong. Many founders are caught out by preferential rights (giving some investors first call on any funds) and hidden governance/voting/veto powers.
Don’t just think about your employee shares, think about your stakeholder’s rights.
Two stages located in Hall C next to the exhibition Hall B provide an extension of the education program, featuring additional technical presentations and interactive features:
1. Tech Talk Stage
Join us on the Tech Talk Stage in Halle C7 to bridge the gap between industry and academia with our rapid-fire Tech Talks. In just 12 minutes, companies dive into today’s technical challenges and the solutions they’ve built. These sessions serve as the perfect industry complement to academic posters and presentations.
Tech Talk Stage Schedule - click here!
2. Innovation Stage
The Industrial Activities Board (IAB) is hosting the Innovation Stage as a dedicated space for budding robotics entrepreneurs and those interested in ecosystem building and partnerships, along with a set of talks on Standards on Wednesday afternoon. This stage will showcase short talks from the Startup exhibitors, as well as seasoned experts. If you are facing startup challenges, slike preparing to manufacture for the first time or finding the right robotics companies to partner with, then this is a place to be. Come to the Innovation Stage to learn how to avoid some of the pitfalls and be inspired by those who have the scars.
Innovation Stage Schedule - click here!
Robot Parade - June 4
In addition to presentations in Hall C6+7, please join us for the Annual Robot Parade on Thursday, June 4, from 3:00 PM to 3:45 PM in the Exhibition Hall.
Ros Meetup at ICRA - June 2
Join us at ICRA 2026 for the official ROS user meetup as we gather to celebrate a major milestone for our community. We are thrilled to commemorate the launch of ROS 2 Lyrical Luth, our newest long term support release. Whether you are a seasoned robotics developer or just getting started with the Robot Operating System, this is the perfect opportunity to connect with fellow researchers, engineers, and enthusiasts who are shaping the future of the field.
Drone Code Social at ICRA - June 4
Dronecode and Auterion are taking over a corner of the Schweizerhaus, Vienna’s legendary Prater beer garden, for an evening with the PX4 community on the sidelines of ICRA 2026.
No talks, no slides, no agenda. Just Stelze, Budvar, and the people building the open source stack behind professional drones and aerial robotics.
Quori Community Meetup - June 4
We are planning an informal, in-person gathering sometime June 4 at ICRA 2026 in Vienna, Austria for current and prospective members of the Quori robotics community. All are welcome!
Quori is an NSF-funded, not-for-profit, open-everything, modular, social robot platform for the robotics research community
The gathering at ICRA will serve as an opportunity to meet with colleagues interested in the Quori robot platform and to network with other researchers interested in human-robot interaction and general robotics.
IEEE Entrepreneurship Hard Tech Venture Summit - Boston
June 10-11, 2026 - Thomas M. Menino Convention and Exhibition Center (MCEC)
Boston, MA
Fueling Hard Tech growth through capital, mentorship, and resources. Designed specifically for Pre-Seed to Series A startups building complex physical technologies.
See what attendees experienced at April 2026 Summit
See what our attendees experienced at last year’s Summit
Why Attend?
High-Impact Engagement: Historically maintains a 2:1 startup-to-investor ratio.
Roundtable Discussions: Unique opportunities to connect directly with investors.
Technical Problem Solving: Receive hands-on guidance from manufacturing experts to solve hurdles.
Strategic Partnerships: Accelerate fundraising, production, and market entry.
Silicon Valley Robotics Investor/Startup Database
Are you a startup fundraising atm? Fill out our “For Investors Eyes Only” sheet.
These investors write checks anywhere from angel and seed stage to $5-50 million.
Feedback from the startups - high quality inbound interest from investors.
Feedback from the investors - incredible depth and range of robotics startups.
If you’re an accredited investor and haven’t already signed up for the spreadsheet - Sign up here for great robotics deal flow!
Love watching robot live streams?
Plus One Robotics recently shared 8+ solid hours of their system sorting packages, with 3x the throughput of Figure or a human operator. Also no mistakes. And very soothing background music. Bring on the battle of the real robot live streams!
Robotics News
Galaxy Corporation Humanoid Robot Fashion Show in Seoul: Cowboy Hats, Silks, Bowie-Era Trousers - Tech Times
This Trump-linked startup plans to put humanoid robots in the military - CNBC
Former CIA chief Petraeus says drone swarms are the next danger — and growth opportunity - CNBC
An SF startup is secretly testing robots in Airbnbs, and trashing them, lawsuit claims - The San Francisco Standard
Unicorn born in record time amid ‘arms race’ among China’s robotic hand developers - SCMP
Humanoid robots ‘the future’ of carmaking, says BMW - BBC (also the future FOR carmakers ;)
Hyundai to send 25,000 Atlas robots to the US - Fox News
Hyundai’s $1.5B bet puts robots and robotaxis in focus - Dallas Express
Robotaxis Are Spreading Across the U.S.—and So Is the Backlash - WSJ
How safe are autonomous vehicles? A look at the state of driverless cars in Texas - Spectrum News
Waymo dominates autonomous vehicle registrations as Tesla left behind - TechCrunch
Autonomous vehicles: when deliveries don’t wait for drivers - DHL
Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana outlines vision for a world of autonomous vehicles - The Stanford Daily
Fanuc, Google advance industrial robotics as part of recent AI deals - Manufacturing Dive
Mecademic Secures Strategic Funding to Drive Global Expansion - A3
Human Archive Raises $8.2M in Seed Round Funding to Model Human Embodied Intelligence to Train Robots - AI Insider
Boston Dynamic’s Schulman on US Robotics Strategy - Bloomberg
NIST proposes a baseline performance benchmark for humanoid robots - The Robot Report
Google DeepMind’s Parada on Robotics Technology - Bloomberg
Rovers, regolith, robots: The blueprint for the moon - Texas A&M
Are you interested in demoing or exhibiting at an event for aged care providers and investors?
* June 17 or 18 in the SF Bay Area.
Robotics Events
Want to host an event or reach the robotics community?
Many companies are reaching out to Silicon Valley Robotics about hosting events, outreach or hiring and we have a great community network, of people looking for work, of investors interested in deal flow and of technologists interested in learning about the latest advances.
Would you be interested in hosting the next Bots, Bevs and Devs? Or something customized specifically for your goals? Reach out here!
More Robotics Events:
ICRA 2026 - Vienna, Austria - June 01 - June 05
ROS Meetup @ ICRA 2026 - Vienna, Austria - June 2
IEEE Hard Tech Venture Summit - Boston - June 10 - June 11
Automate - Chicago - June 22 - June 25
Deep Tech Week - San Francisco - June 22 - June 26
Robot Fringe Festival - London - July 2
Robotics: Science and Systems - Sydney, Australia - July 13 - July 16
Open Sauce - San Francisco - July 17 - July 19
Actuate - San Francisco - Aug 18 - Aug 19
ROSCon Global - Toronto - Sep 22 - Sep 24
IROS 2026 - Pittsburgh - Sep 27 - Oct 1
IEEE Humanoids 2026 - Silicon Valley - Dec 6-9
The annual IEEE-RAS International Conference on Humanoid Robots is the internationally recognized prime event of the humanoid robotics community. The conference is sponsored by the IEEE Robotics and Automation Society and coordinated by the Technical Committee on Humanoids.
Send me your 2026 progress, plans or posts for potential inclusion in Robots&Startups. Or join the organizing team at Silicon Valley Robotics - bots&beer@svrobo.org
Robotics investment is becoming less about funding impressive machines and more about backing companies that can combine reliable deployment, disciplined capital structures, real-world data loops, and operational trust into scalable physical-AI infrastructure.