The Goldilocks Zone for Robots: hard tech investor advice
Plus the 'AI Body Gap' and delays for the US national robotics push alongside existential science funding cuts
On Thursday, IEEE Systems Council organized a Hard Tech Investor Panel that I got to moderate and ask the questions that so many robotics companies ask me. In particular, how can we explain that the metrics for a robotics Series A look nothing like the metrics for a software Series A. One is typically for the first robot production run while the other is typically for the first big go-to-market.
It came down to risk. With a software product, the main risk at Series A stage is can you reach a market, and capture a share of it. It’s assumed that you can build a good enough product to go-to-market, so the investment risk is all about product/market fit.
This profile is flipped for a hardware or hard tech startup. It’s assumed that there is a probably a market and the primary risk is whether or not you can build a good enough product to keep the interest of your very first potential customers. The investment risk is in converting technical advances into manufacturable and reliable products.
A few more great insights from the panelists:
Spencer Greene, General Partner at TSVC, talked about the ‘Goldilocks Zone’ for hard tech and robotics. Finding the sweet spot in between the race-to-the-bottom of commodity hardware and the marathon of a moon shot.
Muffi Ghadiali, Partner at i3 Ventures, talked about timing the confluence of technological advances so that a startup like PitPro Automation (tire changing robots) could succeed where several earlier startups attempting the same thing had failed.
Michael Harries, Partner at The Robotics Hub Fund, talked about ‘The Risk Stack’ being qualitatively different for hard tech startups, where risks compound due to dependencies, and so the sequence you address risk becomes a critical success factor.
Alexander Fries, General Partner at Ecosystem Ventures, talked about how important it is for a founder or founding team to have enthusiasm for the problem they’re solving. It’s not just energy for the hard work of being a founder but passion for the problem.
Muffi also pointed out that there are many many niche industries where labor is impossible to find and that computer vision, AI and robotics could be deployed as an answer. The whole group, when asked, said that the potential market size of robotics and hard tech was infinite.
Meet ONLY Hard Tech funds & several angels in one place—over a full-day.
IEEE Hard Tech Venture Summit, April 16-17, SRI - Menlo Park
Join a curated group of startups and investors to spend the day chatting and sharing opinions in structured roundtables, plus informal networking during coffee breaks and lunch.
This is not a typical pitch event. It’s a format designed by Hard Tech investors and entrepreneurs to boost key relationships and accelerate the path to capital and commercialization.
Confirmed investors include: Intel Capital, Yamaha Motor Ventures, Bosch Ventures, At One Ventures, Samsung Next, Sony Semiconductor Solutions, TSVC, Monozukuri Ventures, i3 Ventures, Departure Ventures, REDDS Capital, Ecosystem Ventures, Corelabs Capital, Althing Ventures, Navis Capital, güil Mobility Ventures, Red Glass Ventures, VU Venture Partners, and active angel investors.
Startup seats are limited to maintain a 2:1 startup-to-investor ratio. Click here to learn more and register - the URL also activate a $60 Discount dedicated to the Silicon Valley Robots community.
https://sv.vsummit.ieeesystemscouncil.org/?c=Csvrobo
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Many companies are reaching out about hosting events, outreach or hiring and we have a great community network, of people looking for work, of investors interested in deal flow and of technologists interested in learning about the latest advances.
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National robotics push caught in delayed Trump-Xi meeting
The U.S. robotics industry is looking for the administration to take aggressive steps to help them compete with China. These could include tax incentives to spur adoption, government purchases of robots for defense, logistics and warehousing, federal support for workforce training, public-private partnerships and other guidelines to accelerate deployment.
“All of the policies that specifically mention China are on pause because of the need to create some goodwill and space ahead of the meeting,” said a robotics industry executive involved in Washington policy discussions and granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Executives had initially expected a national robotics strategy, which could include an executive order, to be released in the first half of the year. But the summit — originally scheduled for March and delayed to May due to the war in Iran — has scrambled those expectations.
“The belief is that there’s a window right now where we can still compete, and we need to seize the window while it’s open,” said a robotics CEO who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s going to close if we don’t do something about it.”
Read more on Politico
Not just NASA. All research budgets to be gutted.
The Trump administration has proposed significant cuts to many science agencies in its budget request for fiscal year 2027, including:
A 54% cut to the National Science Foundation;
A 47% cut to NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, as well as a 23% cut to NASA’s overall budget;
A 28% cut to the National Institute of Standards and Technology;
A 13% cut to the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, despite a 2% increase to DOE’s overall budget;
A 10% cut to the National Institutes of Health;
No funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s research arm; and
Cuts to basic research at the Department of Defense and the U.S. Geological Survey.
According to the American Institute of Physics, each research directorate would receive deep cuts under the request, including a 75% cut to the Engineering Directorate, a 72% cut to Biological Sciences, a 67% cut to Mathematical and Physical Sciences, a 63% cut to Computer and Information Science and Engineering, and a 43% cut to Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships. (Directorate-level spending totals for fiscal year 2026 are not yet available, so the request compares to the figures released for 2025.)
Even AI and quantum information science, which NSF designated in fiscal year 2026 as “Frontier Initiatives” that represent “the highest strategic importance to the nation,” would see cuts of 32% and 37%, respectively. The additional “innovation focal points” — advanced manufacturing and materials and biotechnology — would also receive cuts of 70% and 40%, respectively.
Read more at FYI: Science Policy News
AI Body Gap: Why Robots Need “Internal Feelings” to be Safe
Today’s most advanced artificial intelligence systems lack such bodily mechanisms and a new study by UCLA Health argues that this has significant implications for how these models behave as well as how safe and trustworthy they can become.
The Missing Ingredient: The study distinguishes between External Embodiment (interacting with the physical world) and Internal Embodiment (the constant monitoring of internal states like fatigue, uncertainty, or need).
The Perceptual Test: Researchers tested leading AI models using “point-light displays” (dots that suggest a human figure). While even human newborns recognize the person, AI models failed, sometimes describing the dots as a “constellation of stars.”
Safety via Vulnerability: In humans, the body acts as a built-in safety system. If we are “depleted” or “uncertain,” our body registers it. AI lacks this “internal cost,” meaning it has no intrinsic reason to avoid being overconfident when it’s actually guessing.
The Dual-Embodiment Framework: UCLA researchers propose a new architecture for AI that tracks “synthetic” internal states—such as processing load and confidence levels—to constrain behavior over time.
Moving Beyond Mimicry: The team argues for new benchmarks that measure if an AI can monitor itself and maintain stability, rather than just testing if it can identify objects or pass a bar exam.
Read more at Neuroscience News
Silicon Valley Robotics Investor/Startup Database
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Robotics News
The First Year of Physical AI: A Trillion-Dollar Gamble on “How the World Works” - 36KR
‘No one’s raising their hand’: Japan’s labor crisis is making the case for robots taking the jobs you don’t want - Fortune
Humanoid robots take over manual job at auto parts plant - NBC
Kia plans US-bound pickup, more hybrids and robots - WardsAuto
LG taps Silicon Valley partners to fast-track AI, robotics strategy - The Korea Times
This Is A Momentous Year For Early-Stage Unicorns - Crunchbase News
Robot Density Soars in Europe, Asia and Americas - IFR
Waymo & Waze to Fight Potholes! - CleanTechnica
Michigan permissive of autonomous vehicles like Waymo - Axios
What’s driving the delivery robot boom and human responses to these non-human assistants - Temple Now
Waymo begins testing in Chicago as bill seeks to legalize autonomous vehicles - ABC7
Ex-Tesla exec explains GM’s bold bet on personal autonomous cars - Yahoo Finance
From flying cars to self-driving cars: CEOs weigh in - Yahoo Finance
How Ottonomy Robots Are Mapping Last-Mile Delivery With Contextual AI - Inc42
Watch a Robot Stuff Cash Into a Wallet Just Like You Do - CNET
Amazon CEO says robotics is key for faster delivery, lower costs - The Robot Report
Origami inspired robot built from printable polymers uses electrical current to move - TechXplore
Ukraine’s ground robots now running 9,000 missions a month - Scripps News
Defense giant Anduril is quietly building autonomous warships on Seattle’s historic ship canal - Geekwire
Unmanned and autonomous vessels: Is the Coast Guard ready to regulate? - WorkBoat
The Army is testing out a robotic kitchen that can cook for soldiers downrange - Task & Purpose
Meet the Swiss founder building robots that make crêpes - Sifted
Chef Robotics expands into meatpacking with tray assembly automation - Provisioner Online
Agile Robots to tap into new sectors with latest acquisition - Manufacturing Dive
Grand Teton National Park Forced To Introduce Bizarre New Robots To Combat Airport’s Disruption - The Travel
Robotics Events
ROS By-The-Bay
April 16 - 6pm to 9pm at Beckhoff Automation in San Jose
Hear from the founders of Innate and Saphira and join the Bay Area’s premium ROS developer gathering.
IEEE Hard Tech Venture Summit and Robotics Manufacturing Workshop at SRI International - April 16-17 - use “Csvrobo” for $90 discount
AMBayArea Summit 2026 (from the Association of Manufacturers Bay Area) - Chabot Space & Science Center - April 21
Keynote Speaker Andra Keay on Humanoids, Humans, and the Workforce
Revolution No One Is Talking About
Physical AI Industry Night: San Francisco
April 23 - 5.30-8.30 - SF - presented by Foxglove and Eclipse
Join us for an invite-only evening for developers and engineering leaders building the future of robotics and physical Al in San Francisco.
Topic: From Automation to Autonomous Machines: The convergence between traditional industrial robotics and modern autonomy.
Panelists:
[Host] Adrian Macneil - Co-Founder & CEO, Foxglove
Behrad Toghi - AI & Robotics Lead, GM
Kevin Peterson - CTO, Bedrock Robotics
Pete Florance - Co-Founder & CEO, Generalist
Ruijie He - Founding Technical Member, Mind Robotics
Expect a casual atmosphere, great conversations, and a chance to connect with others pushing the frontier of real-world Al systems.
Robots on Ice 2026
April 25 at Sharks Ice San Jose
Get ready for one of the coolest tech-meets-sport events of the year! Robots on Ice 2026 brings together robotics, creativity, and skating for an unforgettable experience on the rink.
Join us for Robots on Ice 2026—where engineering meets the ice rink.
🤖⛸️
Are you looking to register a bot? Here’s the link:
Bots, Bevs & Devs
May 5 - 6pm to 8.30pm at Circuit Launch Oakland
Speakers and details TBA
RSVP: Bots, Bevs & DevsBots, Bevs & Devs
More Robotics Events:
Robotics Invest - Boston - May 26-27
ICRA 2026 - Vienna, Austria - Jun 01 - Jun 05
Automate - Chicago - June 22 - Jun 25
Deep Tech Week - SF - Jun 21 - Jun 25
Robot Fringe Festival - London - Jul 2
Robotics: Science and Systems - Sydney, Australia - Jul 13 - Jul 16
Open Sauce - San Francisco - Jul 17 - Jul 19
ROSCon Global - Toronto - Sep 22 - Sep 24
IROS 2026 - Pittsburgh - Sep 27 - Oct 1
IEEE Humanoids 2026 - Silicon Valley - Dec 6-9
The annual IEEE-RAS International Conference on Humanoid Robots is the internationally recognized prime event of the humanoid robotics community. The conference is sponsored by the IEEE Robotics and Automation Society and coordinated by the Technical Committee on Humanoids.
Send me your 2026 progress, plans or posts for potential inclusion in Robots&Startups. Or join the organizing team at Silicon Valley Robotics - bots&beer@svrobo.org
This is such a helpful perspective! I am building a robotics startup and funding is one of the big topics right now. And while I am an engineer and started my career in autonomous driving I spend the last years of my career as PM in saas. I feel I am still struggling to grasp the full implications of the fact that the tech is the bit that needs validation too and not only the market.