Your framing of Robotics 1.0 (arms in cages) vs 2.0 (perceptive, environment-aware systems) really resonates with what we’re seeing in clinics, homes and community settings. The next big test isn’t just clever prototypes or humanoid demos, but whether we can safely scale these “fast, cheap and out of control” robots into regulated, real-world workflows at human scale – that’s the bridge we need to cross before we earn the right to talk seriously about Robotics 3.0.
Absolutely true - it's been 20 years since the DARPA Robotics Challenge (for self-driving) really launched the components of Robotics 2.0 and if we look at the timeline I believe it will be 30 years for Robotics 2.0 to be 'an overnight success'. Real deployments with revenue have been happening but not yet at scale, and the 'rules' for engaging with society are still being developed.
If you follow the European robotics sector, you’ll notice that most of its companies are all entering the scale-up phase at the same time. Quite interesting, and I'm wondering if it’ll be sufficient to catch up the US and China or most of these companies will be acquired.
I think there is still a range - but across different verticals or markets. Subsectors of a market ie. mining inspection or heavy construction will tend to mature at the same time, but an adjacent market might still be transitioning from research grant to early seed stage.
Your framing of Robotics 1.0 (arms in cages) vs 2.0 (perceptive, environment-aware systems) really resonates with what we’re seeing in clinics, homes and community settings. The next big test isn’t just clever prototypes or humanoid demos, but whether we can safely scale these “fast, cheap and out of control” robots into regulated, real-world workflows at human scale – that’s the bridge we need to cross before we earn the right to talk seriously about Robotics 3.0.
Absolutely true - it's been 20 years since the DARPA Robotics Challenge (for self-driving) really launched the components of Robotics 2.0 and if we look at the timeline I believe it will be 30 years for Robotics 2.0 to be 'an overnight success'. Real deployments with revenue have been happening but not yet at scale, and the 'rules' for engaging with society are still being developed.
If you follow the European robotics sector, you’ll notice that most of its companies are all entering the scale-up phase at the same time. Quite interesting, and I'm wondering if it’ll be sufficient to catch up the US and China or most of these companies will be acquired.
I think there is still a range - but across different verticals or markets. Subsectors of a market ie. mining inspection or heavy construction will tend to mature at the same time, but an adjacent market might still be transitioning from research grant to early seed stage.